KuPS 0-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Väre Areena, KuPS have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for KuPS against 1.60 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours KuPS, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Mariehamn — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with KuPS winning.
The historical record gives KuPS a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 48% versus Mariehamn 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 46% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.81 xG and Mariehamn 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.112 / defence 0.726 | Mariehamn attack 1.038 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.046. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. KuPS's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 KuPS games / 33 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 60% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 14%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Mariehamn 7.14. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 40% | Mariehamn 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 60% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG KuPS 1.81 / Mariehamn 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.112 / def 0.726 | Mariehamn attack 1.038 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: KuPS (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Mariehamn xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
KuPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 27 June 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS 0 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is KuPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Mariehamn part of?
KuPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 60% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both KuPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
Record (4 meetings): KuPS 3W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.11x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (1.04x) against KuPS's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 35/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.84
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.60
0.79
Mariehamn xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
43.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for KuPS and 0.79 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 54 games, going 34W 13D 7L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (18W 10D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 18W 8D 1L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (9W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.28 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 34W 13D 7L in their last 54 games (2.13 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 18W 10D 26L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Mariehamn away?
KuPS's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.30 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.15 PPG.
Have KuPS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Mariehamn?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 44%, Mariehamn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (KuPS) and 44% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Mariehamn in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of KuPS's recent matches and 44% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of KuPS's recent games and 44% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat KuPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat KuPS 0-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.81 xG and Mariehamn 0.79 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KuPS fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.11 / defence 0.73 against Mariehamn attack 1.04 / defence 1.33, drawn from 35/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 60% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 14%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 46%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.