KuPS 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Savon Sanomat Areena plays host to KuPS versus Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 25 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at Savon Sanomat Areena this term (2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Savon Sanomat Areena.
Ilves (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in KuPS's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 33% versus Ilves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (KuPS 33% | Ilves 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.19 xG and Ilves 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.073 / defence 0.873 | Ilves attack 0.756 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 0.841 / away 1.171. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 KuPS games / 12 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 30% | Ilves 24%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Ilves 4.17. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 33% | Ilves 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Savon Sanomat Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 30% | Ilves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG KuPS 1.19 / Ilves 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.073 / def 0.873 | Ilves attack 0.756 / def 1.318 | league avg home 0.841 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: KuPS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Ilves xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Ilves kick off?
KuPS vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Ilves?
KuPS 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is KuPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Ilves part of?
KuPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 46% chance of winning, Ilves a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both KuPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Ilves in?
KuPS (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KuPS's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.76x) against KuPS's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.30
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
KuPS xG
Total xG
1.96
0.77
Ilves xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are KuPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for KuPS and 0.77 for Ilves, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 12 games, going 8W 1D 3L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Ilves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.17 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while Ilves have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Ilves away?
KuPS's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.17 PPG; Ilves away: 0.83 PPG.
Have KuPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Ilves in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Ilves?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 33%, Ilves 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for KuPS and 33% for Ilves.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of KuPS's recent matches and 67% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of KuPS's recent games and 33% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Ilves tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ilves in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 1-0 at Savon Sanomat Areena, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.19 xG and Ilves 0.77 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Ilves attack 0.76 / defence 1.32, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 46% | Draw 30% | Ilves 24%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 33%, Ilves 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ilves's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.