KuPS 0-0 HJK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs HJK Helsinki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HJK Helsinki make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 6W 4D 0L at Väre Areena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
HJK Helsinki have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for HJK Helsinki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, HJK Helsinki have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward KuPS. A 0.70 PPG lead over HJK Helsinki (2.20 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
KuPS — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
HJK Helsinki — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 44% versus HJK Helsinki 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 44% | HJK Helsinki 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.03 xG and HJK Helsinki 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.221 / defence 0.798 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.914 / defence 0.643. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.282. HJK Helsinki's defence strength of 0.643 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. KuPS's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 KuPS games / 32 HJK Helsinki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 36% | Draw 33% | HJK Helsinki 31%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | HJK Helsinki 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 40% | HJK Helsinki 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs HJK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 36% | Draw 33% | HJK Helsinki 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG KuPS 1.03 / HJK Helsinki 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.221 / def 0.798 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.914 / def 0.643 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: KuPS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.94
HJK Helsinki xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs HJK Helsinki kick off?
KuPS vs HJK Helsinki kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
KuPS 0 - 0 HJK Helsinki.
Where is KuPS vs HJK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs HJK Helsinki part of?
KuPS vs HJK Helsinki is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 36% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both KuPS and HJK Helsinki will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs HJK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and HJK Helsinki in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. HJK Helsinki (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.22x the league average against HJK Helsinki's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — HJK Helsinki's attack (0.91x) against KuPS's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
36%
2.77
33%
3.05
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
KuPS xG
Total xG
1.96
0.94
HJK Helsinki xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are KuPS and HJK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for KuPS and 0.94 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS's recent record stands at 17W 7D 3L from 27 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
HJK Helsinki, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 4L across 27 games — 2.19 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for HJK Helsinki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.15 PPG for KuPS against 2.19 for HJK Helsinki. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 8W 4D 1L from 13 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HJK Helsinki's away record stands at 9W 3D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; HJK Helsinki are on 1.52 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; HJK Helsinki in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
HJK Helsinki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and HJK Helsinki in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 games (2.15 PPG), while HJK Helsinki have gone 18W 5D 4L in their last 27 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or HJK Helsinki away?
HJK Helsinki's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.15 PPG; HJK Helsinki away: 2.31 PPG.
Have KuPS or HJK Helsinki been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, HJK Helsinki in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-4 on 27 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against HJK Helsinki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
KuPS
2
Draws
1
HJK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 7, HJK Helsinki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and HJK Helsinki last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when HJK Helsinki 0-4 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
HJK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 38%, HJK Helsinki 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (KuPS) and 38% (HJK Helsinki).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; HJK Helsinki in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / HJK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play HJK Helsinki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of KuPS's recent matches and 38% of HJK Helsinki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs HJK Helsinki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of KuPS's recent games and 38% of HJK Helsinki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and HJK Helsinki tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, HJK Helsinki in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at KuPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS and HJK Helsinki finished level at 0-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.03 xG and HJK Helsinki 0.94 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KuPS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. HJK Helsinki landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.22 / defence 0.80 against HJK Helsinki attack 0.91 / defence 0.64, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 36% | Draw 33% | HJK Helsinki 31%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 44%, HJK Helsinki 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
HJK Helsinki's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KuPS 2.15 PPG, HJK Helsinki 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.