KuPS 0-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Haka at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS at Väre Areena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — KuPS are significantly better at Väre Areena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haka have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Haka are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, KuPS have won 1, Haka 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
KuPS trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Haka trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 51% versus Haka 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 49% | Haka 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.88 xG and Haka 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.151 / defence 0.631 | Haka attack 1.021 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. KuPS's defence rating of 0.631 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 KuPS games / 44 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 24% | Haka 17%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 5.88. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haka (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 60% | Haka 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 24% | Haka 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG KuPS 1.88 / Haka 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.151 / def 0.631 | Haka attack 1.021 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: KuPS (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Haka xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Haka kick off?
KuPS vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Haka?
KuPS 0 - 0 Haka.
Where is KuPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Haka part of?
KuPS vs Haka is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 59% chance of winning, Haka a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both KuPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
Record (2 meetings): KuPS 1W | Draws 0 | Haka 1W.
What form are KuPS and Haka in?
KuPS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Haka (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.20
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.81
0.93
Haka xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
3%
37.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for KuPS and 0.93 for Haka, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, KuPS have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 32W 12D 7L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 23W 9D 19L from 51 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.32 PPG from 25 outings (17W 7D 1L).
On the road, Haka have gone 11W 3D 11L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.35 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Haka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 32W 12D 7L in their last 51 games (2.12 PPG), while Haka have gone 23W 9D 19L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Haka away?
KuPS's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.32 PPG; Haka away: 1.44 PPG.
Have KuPS or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Haka in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Haka specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Haka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Haka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 48%, Haka 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (KuPS) and 52% (Haka).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Haka in 36%; Haka in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of KuPS's recent matches and 40% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of KuPS's recent games and 52% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Haka tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Haka in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at KuPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS and Haka finished level at 0-0 at Väre Areena, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.88 xG and Haka 0.93 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KuPS fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Haka landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.15 / defence 0.63 against Haka attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 59% | Draw 24% | Haka 17%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 49%, Haka 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haka's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.