KuPS 2-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Haka at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 12 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS at Väre Areena this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haka have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: KuPS 2.20 PPG, Haka 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
KuPS trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Haka trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 44% versus Haka 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 44% | Haka 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.81 xG and Haka 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.198 / defence 0.754 | Haka attack 0.987 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.343. KuPS's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 KuPS games / 28 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 56% | Draw 24% | Haka 20%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 5.00. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 40% | Haka 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Thursday 12 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 56% | Draw 24% | Haka 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG KuPS 1.81 / Haka 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.198 / def 0.754 | Haka attack 0.987 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: KuPS (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Haka xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Haka kick off?
KuPS vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 12 May 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Haka?
KuPS 2 - 1 Haka.
Where is KuPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Haka part of?
KuPS vs Haka is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 56% chance of winning, Haka a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both KuPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Haka in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.24
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.81
1.00
Haka xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are KuPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for KuPS and 1.00 for Haka, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, KuPS have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 17W 7D 3L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 10W 5D 12L from 27 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L).
On the road, Haka have gone 6W 1D 6L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.11 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Haka in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Haka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 games (2.15 PPG), while Haka have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Haka away?
KuPS's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.15 PPG; Haka away: 1.46 PPG.
Have KuPS or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Haka in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Haka specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Haka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Haka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — KuPS 38% BTTS, Haka 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (KuPS) and 46% (Haka).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Haka in 38%; Haka in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of KuPS's recent matches and 31% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of KuPS's recent games and 46% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Haka tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Haka in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Haka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Haka 2-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.81 xG and Haka 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.20 / defence 0.75 against Haka attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 56% | Draw 24% | Haka 20%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 44%, Haka 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.