KuPS 1-2 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Haka at Savon Sanomat Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.09 xG and Haka 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.995 / defence 0.814 | Haka attack 0.884 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 0.920 / away 1.446. Data: 5 KuPS games / 4 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 36% | Draw 30% | Haka 34%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Haka 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Savon Sanomat Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 36% | Draw 30% | Haka 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG KuPS 1.09 / Haka 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.995 / def 0.814 | Haka attack 0.884 / def 1.192 | league avg home 0.920 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: KuPS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Haka xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Haka kick off?
KuPS vs Haka kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Haka?
KuPS 1 - 2 Haka.
Where is KuPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Haka part of?
KuPS vs Haka is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 36% chance of winning, Haka a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both KuPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Haka in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.33
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.13
1.04
Haka xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for KuPS and 1.04 for Haka, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Pre-Season
Haka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Haka specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Haka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Haka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat KuPS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat KuPS 1-2 at Savon Sanomat Areena, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.09 xG and Haka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haka outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against Haka attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 36% | Draw 30% | Haka 34%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.