Kooteepee 0-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kooteepee vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Kooteepee welcome SJK to Arto Tolsa Areena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kooteepee — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kooteepee's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 6L across 8 games at Arto Tolsa Areena this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SJK — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kooteepee have won 0, SJK 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
SJK in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 56% versus SJK 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 56% | SJK 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.77 xG and SJK 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.712 / defence 1.528 | SJK attack 0.587 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.145. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Kooteepee games / 18 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 27% | Draw 33% | SJK 41%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | SJK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Kooteepee's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Kooteepee 62% | SJK 11% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 27% | Draw 33% | SJK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Kooteepee 0.77 / SJK 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.712 / def 1.528 | SJK attack 0.587 / def 1.124 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: SJK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.03
SJK xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs SJK kick off?
Kooteepee vs SJK kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs SJK?
Kooteepee 0 - 1 SJK.
Where is Kooteepee vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs SJK part of?
Kooteepee vs SJK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 27% chance of winning, SJK a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Kooteepee and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and SJK?
Record (1 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 1 | SJK 0W.
What form are Kooteepee and SJK in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SJK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kooteepee's attack at 0.71x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
27%
3.75
33%
3.07
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
1.79
1.03
SJK xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 17.1 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.03 for SJK, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Kooteepee have picked up 0.44 PPG on a 1W 5D 12L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 9W 3D 6L from 18 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kooteepee.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kooteepee have posted 0.25 PPG from 8 outings (0W 2D 6L).
On the road, SJK have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SJK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kooteepee are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.22 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 28%.
Defensively: SJK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and SJK in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 1W 5D 12L in their last 18 games (0.44 PPG), while SJK have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.25 PPG; SJK away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, SJK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kooteepee and SJK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SJK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when SJK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting SJK specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
1
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and SJK?
From 6 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, SJK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when SJK 3-0 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 62%, SJK 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kooteepee) and 25% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 50%; Kooteepee have failed to score in 38% of games; SJK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 12% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kooteepee's recent games and 25% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and SJK tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SJK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Kooteepee 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Kooteepee 0-1 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.77 xG and SJK 1.03 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.71 / defence 1.53 against SJK attack 0.59 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 27% | Draw 33% | SJK 41%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 56%, SJK 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SJK's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Kooteepee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.