Kooteepee 1-3 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kooteepee vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Mariehamn travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 July 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arto Tolsa Areena, Kooteepee have gone 0W 1D 3L this season (4 games, 0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kooteepee at 0.60 PPG versus Mariehamn's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 80% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kooteepee 60% | Mariehamn 10%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 40% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.12 xG and Mariehamn 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.822 / defence 1.584 | Mariehamn attack 0.662 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 0.869 / away 1.140. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing Kooteepee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Kooteepee games / 10 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 34% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 38%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Mariehamn 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kooteepee 75% | Mariehamn 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 34% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Kooteepee 1.12 / Mariehamn 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.822 / def 1.584 | Mariehamn attack 0.662 / def 1.565 | league avg home 0.869 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Mariehamn xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kick off?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 12 July 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Kooteepee 1 - 3 Mariehamn.
Where is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn part of?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 34% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kooteepee and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.54
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.31
1.20
Mariehamn xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.20 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 7L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kooteepee on 0.60 PPG, Mariehamn on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kooteepee have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mariehamn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.50 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Mariehamn in 10%.
Last 10 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.25 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Mariehamn won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
3
Draws
5
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, Mariehamn have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 75%, Mariehamn 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kooteepee) and 50% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 0% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kooteepee's recent games and 50% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Kooteepee 1-3 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.12 xG and Mariehamn 1.20 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.82 / defence 1.58 against Mariehamn attack 0.66 / defence 1.56, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 34% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 38%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 40%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 10% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kooteepee 0.60 PPG, Mariehamn 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.