Kooteepee 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kooteepee vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ilves travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 June 2021, 16:30 UTC.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kooteepee have won 0, Ilves 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Ilves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.96 xG and Ilves 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.803 / defence 1.554 | Ilves attack 0.741 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 0.874 / away 1.325. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Kooteepee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Kooteepee games / 9 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 24% | Draw 26% | Ilves 51%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Ilves 1.96. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 24% | Draw 26% | Ilves 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Kooteepee 0.96 / Ilves 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.803 / def 1.554 | Ilves attack 0.741 / def 1.363 | league avg home 0.874 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Ilves (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Ilves xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Ilves kick off?
Kooteepee vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Kooteepee 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Kooteepee vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Ilves part of?
Kooteepee vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 24% chance of winning, Ilves a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kooteepee and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Record (1 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 0 | Ilves 1W.
What form are Kooteepee and Ilves in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
24%
4.22
26%
3.88
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.48
1.53
Ilves xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
5%
19.42
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.53 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
Ilves
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when Ilves won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Kooteepee
2
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Ilves?
From 7 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 0, Ilves have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 2 July 2025, when Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Kooteepee and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 12, as Kooteepee and Ilves drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.96 xG and Ilves 1.53 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.80 / defence 1.55 against Ilves attack 0.74 / defence 1.36, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 24% | Draw 26% | Ilves 51%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.