Kooteepee 0-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kooteepee vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kooteepee and Haka meet at Arto Tolsa Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kooteepee's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kooteepee at Arto Tolsa Areena this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haka have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka away from home this season: 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kooteepee lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2021, ended 3–0 with Kooteepee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 64% versus Haka 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 46% | Haka 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.92 xG and Haka 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.829 / defence 1.730 | Haka attack 0.873 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 0.844 / away 1.165. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Kooteepee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Kooteepee games / 11 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 20% | Draw 23% | Haka 57%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Haka 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Haka (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kooteepee 80% | Haka 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 20% | Draw 23% | Haka 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Kooteepee 0.92 / Haka 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.829 / def 1.730 | Haka attack 0.873 / def 1.319 | league avg home 0.844 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Haka (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Haka xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Haka kick off?
Kooteepee vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 19 July 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Kooteepee 0 - 0 Haka.
Where is Kooteepee vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Haka part of?
Kooteepee vs Haka is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 20% chance of winning, Haka a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kooteepee and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Haka?
Record (1 meetings): Kooteepee 1W | Draws 0 | Haka 0W.
What form are Kooteepee and Haka in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Haka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kooteepee's attack at 0.83x the league average against Haka's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.87x) against Kooteepee's defence (1.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
20%
5.12
23%
4.28
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.68
1.76
Haka xG
5.12
20%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
29.76
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.76 for Haka, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kooteepee come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 3D 7L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 0.73 PPG from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.55 PPG for Kooteepee against 0.73 for Haka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kooteepee's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 0.73 PPG overall record — Haka travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kooteepee are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 0.91 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Haka in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Haka have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.20 PPG; Haka away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kooteepee have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won 0-3 on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kooteepee have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Kooteepee
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Haka?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 3, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Kooteepee, 60% for Haka — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kooteepee and 80% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Haka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kooteepee's games and 60% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kooteepee vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kooteepee's matches and 80% of Haka's.
Do Kooteepee and Haka tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Haka in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kooteepee's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee and Haka finished level at 0-0 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.92 xG and Haka 1.76 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Haka landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.83 / defence 1.73 against Haka attack 0.87 / defence 1.32, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 20% | Draw 23% | Haka 57%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 46%, Haka 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haka's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kooteepee 0.55 PPG, Haka 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.