Inter Turku 2-5 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter Turku at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter Turku vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter Turku host SJK at Veritas Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter Turku — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter Turku at Veritas Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Veritas Stadion.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Inter Turku at 1.90 PPG versus SJK's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Inter Turku trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SJK trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 50% versus SJK 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 54% | SJK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.63 xG and SJK 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 1.289 / defence 1.118 | SJK attack 0.600 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.080. Inter Turku carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SJK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Inter Turku's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Inter Turku games / 22 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 59% | Draw 24% | SJK 16%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | SJK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Inter Turku (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter Turku as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inter Turku 40% | SJK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 59% | Draw 24% | SJK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG Inter Turku 1.63 / SJK 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 1.289 / def 1.118 | SJK attack 0.600 / def 1.318 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
0.72
SJK xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs SJK kick off?
Inter Turku vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs SJK?
Inter Turku 2 - 5 SJK.
Where is Inter Turku vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs SJK part of?
Inter Turku vs SJK is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 59% chance of winning, SJK a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Inter Turku and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter Turku and SJK in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. SJK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Inter Turku's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Inter Turku's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.09
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
2.36
0.72
SJK xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
3%
31.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Inter Turku and 0.72 for SJK, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Inter Turku have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 14W 3D 9L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 13W 6D 7L from 26 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inter Turku on 1.73 PPG, SJK on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Inter Turku have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
On the road, SJK have gone 6W 2D 5L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter Turku come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inter Turku are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and SJK in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 14W 3D 9L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while SJK have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or SJK away?
Inter Turku's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 2.00 PPG; SJK away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Inter Turku or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, SJK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inter Turku and SJK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter Turku's record when hosting SJK specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter Turku
2
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 4, SJK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Inter Turku 1-1 SJK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inter Turku see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Inter Turku 46% BTTS, SJK 23%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Inter Turku) and 38% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Inter Turku keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SJK in 46%; SJK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Inter Turku's recent matches and 23% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter Turku vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Inter Turku's recent games and 38% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and SJK tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, SJK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Inter Turku.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Inter Turku 2-5 at Veritas Stadion, Championship Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.63 xG and SJK 0.72 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. SJK outscored their 0.72 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.29 / defence 1.12 against SJK attack 0.60 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 59% | Draw 24% | SJK 16%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a SJK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 54%, SJK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.73 PPG, SJK 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.