Inter Turku 2-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter Turku at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter Turku vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Ilves travel to Veritas Stadion to take on Inter Turku. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Inter Turku have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Veritas Stadion, Inter Turku have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ilves — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Inter Turku 1.60 PPG, Ilves 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Inter Turku trading profile (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ilves trading profile (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 52% versus Ilves 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 56% | Ilves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.39 xG and Ilves 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 1.110 / defence 1.014 | Ilves attack 0.858 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.292. Data: 31 Inter Turku games / 30 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 42% | Draw 28% | Ilves 30%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Ilves 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter Turku as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter Turku offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Inter Turku 50% | Ilves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 42% | Draw 28% | Ilves 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Inter Turku 1.39 / Ilves 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 1.110 / def 1.014 | Ilves attack 0.858 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Ilves xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs Ilves kick off?
Inter Turku vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs Ilves?
Inter Turku 2 - 2 Ilves.
Where is Inter Turku vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs Ilves part of?
Inter Turku vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 42% chance of winning, Ilves a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Inter Turku and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter Turku and Ilves in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Inter Turku's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Inter Turku's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.58
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
Ilves xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Inter Turku and 1.12 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inter Turku's recent record stands at 14W 3D 10L from 27 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 13L across 27 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inter Turku on 1.67 PPG, Ilves on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Inter Turku have managed 8W 2D 4L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 3W 2D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter Turku come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter Turku are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and Ilves in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 14W 3D 10L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Ilves have gone 11W 3D 13L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or Ilves away?
Inter Turku's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 1.86 PPG; Ilves away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Inter Turku or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ilves in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Inter Turku have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2024, when Ilves won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter Turku's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Inter Turku
0
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 6, Ilves have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Ilves 1-3 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Inter Turku and Ilves?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter Turku see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter Turku 50%, Ilves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Inter Turku) and 43% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Inter Turku keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ilves in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Inter Turku's recent matches and 50% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter Turku vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Inter Turku's recent games and 43% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and Ilves tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ilves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter Turku and Ilves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Inter Turku and Ilves drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.39 xG and Ilves 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ilves outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Ilves attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 42% | Draw 28% | Ilves 30%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 56%, Ilves 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.67 PPG, Ilves 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.