Inter Turku 3-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Inter Turku take on Haka.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter Turku and Haka meet at Veritas Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Inter Turku (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Veritas Stadion, Inter Turku have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Inter Turku are significantly better at Veritas Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haka's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Haka have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Haka are 1.30 PPG clear of Inter Turku in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Haka have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Inter Turku's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Haka winning.
It is worth noting that Haka have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Inter Turku goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 56% versus Haka 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 58% | Haka 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.22 xG and Haka 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 0.951 / defence 0.989 | Haka attack 1.005 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.130. Data: 27 Inter Turku games / 30 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 34% | Draw 36% | Haka 30%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Haka 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Inter Turku 60% | Haka 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 34% | Draw 36% | Haka 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Inter Turku 1.22 / Haka 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 0.951 / def 0.989 | Haka attack 1.005 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Haka xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs Haka kick off?
Inter Turku vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs Haka?
Inter Turku 3 - 0 Haka.
Where is Inter Turku vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs Haka part of?
Inter Turku vs Haka is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 34% chance of winning, Haka a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Inter Turku and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Haka?
Record (3 meetings): Inter Turku 0W | Draws 0 | Haka 3W.
What form are Inter Turku and Haka in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inter Turku's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Haka's attack (1.00x) against Inter Turku's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 27/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
36%
2.78
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
2.34
1.12
Haka xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Inter Turku and 1.12 for Haka, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Inter Turku have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 8D 24L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Haka's form line: 24W 11D 20L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Inter Turku against 1.51 for Haka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inter Turku have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, Haka have gone 12W 5D 10L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Inter Turku are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.35 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Current Season
Haka
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and Haka in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 23W 8D 24L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Haka have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or Haka away?
Inter Turku's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 1.52 PPG; Haka away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Inter Turku or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Haka in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 26 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter Turku have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Inter Turku
3
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 3, Haka have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2025, when Haka 0-1 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Inter Turku and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter Turku 52%, Haka 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Inter Turku) and 52% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 41%; Haka in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Inter Turku's recent matches and 41% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter Turku vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Inter Turku's recent games and 52% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and Haka tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haka in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter Turku run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat Haka 3-0 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.22 xG and Haka 1.12 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Inter Turku beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haka landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Haka attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 34% | Draw 36% | Haka 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Inter Turku win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 58%, Haka 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.40 PPG, Haka 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.