Inter Turku 0-2 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter Turku at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter Turku vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter Turku and Haka meet at Bolt Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Inter Turku (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bolt Arena, Inter Turku have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Haka's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haka have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Inter Turku against 2.00 for Haka. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Inter Turku goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 52% versus Haka 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 56% | Haka 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.70 xG and Haka 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 1.110 / defence 0.951 | Haka attack 1.060 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.255. Data: 24 Inter Turku games / 24 Haka games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 47% | Draw 24% | Haka 29%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 3.45. Inter Turku hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Inter Turku as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter Turku if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Inter Turku 50% | Haka 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 47% | Draw 24% | Haka 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Inter Turku 1.70 / Haka 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 1.110 / def 0.951 | Haka attack 1.060 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Haka xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs Haka kick off?
Inter Turku vs Haka kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs Haka?
Inter Turku 0 - 2 Haka.
Where is Inter Turku vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is Inter Turku vs Haka part of?
Inter Turku vs Haka is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 47% chance of winning, Haka a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Inter Turku and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter Turku and Haka in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inter Turku's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Haka's attack (1.06x) against Inter Turku's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.19
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
2.96
1.27
Haka xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
5%
19.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Inter Turku and 1.27 for Haka, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Inter Turku have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 14W 3D 10L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 10W 5D 12L from 27 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Inter Turku against 1.30 for Haka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inter Turku have posted 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L).
On the road, Haka have gone 6W 1D 6L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Inter Turku are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.11 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Haka in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and Haka in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 14W 3D 10L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Haka have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or Haka away?
Inter Turku's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 1.77 PPG; Haka away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Inter Turku or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haka in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 26 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter Turku have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Inter Turku
3
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 3, Haka have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2025, when Haka 0-1 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Inter Turku and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter Turku 54%, Haka 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Inter Turku) and 46% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Inter Turku keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Haka in 38%; Haka in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Inter Turku's recent matches and 31% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter Turku vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Inter Turku's recent games and 46% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and Haka tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Haka in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Inter Turku.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Inter Turku 0-2 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.70 xG and Haka 1.27 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Inter Turku fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Haka attack 1.06 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 47% | Draw 24% | Haka 29%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 56%, Haka 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.67 PPG, Haka 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.