Inter Turku 2-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Inter Turku take on Haka.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter Turku and Haka meet at Veritas Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.06 xG and Haka 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 0.984 / defence 1.006 | Haka attack 0.696 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.179. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Inter Turku's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Inter Turku games / 1 Haka games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 36% | Draw 40% | Haka 24%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 2.78 | Draw 2.50 | Haka 4.17. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 36% | Draw 40% | Haka 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Inter Turku 1.06 / Haka 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 0.984 / def 1.006 | Haka attack 0.696 / def 1.296 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Haka xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs Haka kick off?
Inter Turku vs Haka kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs Haka?
Inter Turku 2 - 1 Haka.
Where is Inter Turku vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs Haka part of?
Inter Turku vs Haka is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 36% chance of winning, Haka a 24% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Inter Turku and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter Turku and Haka in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inter Turku's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.70x) against Inter Turku's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (2/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
40%
2.52
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
1.88
0.82
Haka xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Inter Turku and 0.82 for Haka, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Pre-Season
Haka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 26 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter Turku have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Inter Turku
3
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 3, Haka have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2025, when Haka 0-1 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Inter Turku and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Inter Turku edge out Haka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat Haka 2-1 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.06 xG and Haka 0.82 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Inter Turku beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Haka attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 2/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 36% | Draw 40% | Haka 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Inter Turku win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.