Ilves 0-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ratinan Stadion, Ilves have gone 4W 0D 1L this season (5 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ilves are significantly better at Ratinan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
SJK — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 54% versus SJK 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ilves 46% | SJK 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.16 xG and SJK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.208 / defence 1.059 | SJK attack 0.774 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 0.850 / away 1.179. Data: 11 Ilves games / 11 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 40% | Draw 30% | SJK 30%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | SJK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 40% | SJK 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 40% | Draw 30% | SJK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Ilves 1.16 / SJK 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.208 / def 1.059 | SJK attack 0.774 / def 1.126 | league avg home 0.850 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Ilves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.97
SJK xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 16 July 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 0 - 1 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 40% chance of winning, SJK a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.77x) against Ilves's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.38
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.12
0.97
SJK xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ilves and 0.97 for SJK, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 5W 2D 4L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 5W 2D 4L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Ilves against 1.55 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SJK have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.00 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 27%.
Defensively: SJK in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while SJK have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.40 PPG; SJK away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Ilves or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SJK in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
SJK see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Ilves) and 20% (SJK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ilves) and 20% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SJK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ilves's recent matches and 20% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ilves's recent games and 20% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SJK in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat Ilves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Ilves 0-1 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.16 xG and SJK 0.97 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ilves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against SJK attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 40% | Draw 30% | SJK 30%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 46%, SJK 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.55 PPG, SJK 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. SJK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.