Ilves 0-2 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Inter Turku fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Championship Round - 4 as Ilves welcome Inter Turku to Ratinan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Ratinan Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratinan Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ilves are significantly better at Ratinan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter Turku stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ilves) versus 1.60 (Inter Turku). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Ilves in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Inter Turku in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 40% versus Inter Turku 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 36% | Inter Turku 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.02 xG and Inter Turku 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.917 / defence 0.784 | Inter Turku attack 0.999 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.080. Ilves's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Ilves games / 22 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 32% | Inter Turku 29%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Inter Turku 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 20% | Inter Turku 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 32% | Inter Turku 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Ilves 1.02 / Inter Turku 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.917 / def 0.784 | Inter Turku attack 0.999 / def 1.154 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Inter Turku xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Inter Turku kick off?
Ilves vs Inter Turku kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Inter Turku?
Ilves 0 - 2 Inter Turku.
Where is Ilves vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Inter Turku part of?
Ilves vs Inter Turku is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 39% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ilves and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Inter Turku?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and Inter Turku in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ilves's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Inter Turku's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.12
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Ilves xG
Total xG
1.86
0.84
Inter Turku xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Ilves and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Ilves and 0.84 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves's recent record stands at 10W 3D 12L from 25 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 13W 3D 9L across 25 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.32 PPG, Inter Turku on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 8W 1D 3L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 5W 1D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 10W 3D 12L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 13W 3D 9L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Inter Turku away?
Ilves's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.08 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ilves or Inter Turku been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Inter Turku in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Inter Turku runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Inter Turku have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2024, when Ilves won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
0
Draws
6
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, Inter Turku have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Ilves 1-3 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Inter Turku?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 25%, Inter Turku 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ilves) and 58% (Inter Turku).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Inter Turku?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ilves's recent matches and 58% of Inter Turku's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ilves's recent games and 58% of Inter Turku's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat Ilves 0-2 at Ratinan Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.02 xG and Inter Turku 0.84 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Inter Turku outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.92 / defence 0.78 against Inter Turku attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 39% | Draw 32% | Inter Turku 29%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Inter Turku win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 36%, Inter Turku 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter Turku's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.32 PPG, Inter Turku 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter Turku (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.