Ilves 0-0 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Honka make the trip to Ratinan Stadion to face Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Ilves (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 8W 0D 2L at Ratinan Stadion — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratinan Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ilves are significantly better at Ratinan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Honka's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Honka have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Ilves against 1.50 for Honka. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ilves 0W, Honka 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with Honka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ilves half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Honka half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 33% versus Honka 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 29% | Honka 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.35 xG and Honka 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.031 / defence 0.788 | Honka attack 1.092 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.113. Honka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ilves's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Ilves games / 21 Honka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 46% | Draw 28% | Honka 27%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Honka 3.70. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 20% | Honka 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 46% | Draw 28% | Honka 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Ilves 1.35 / Honka 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.031 / def 0.788 | Honka attack 1.092 / def 1.376 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Ilves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Honka xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Honka kick off?
Ilves vs Honka kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Honka?
Ilves 0 - 0 Honka.
Where is Ilves vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Honka part of?
Ilves vs Honka is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 46% chance of winning, Honka a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ilves and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Honka?
Record (1 meetings): Ilves 0W | Draws 0 | Honka 1W.
What form are Ilves and Honka in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Honka (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.03) and Honka's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Honka's attack (1.09x) against Ilves's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.62
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.31
0.96
Honka xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ilves and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ilves and 0.96 for Honka, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ilves's recent record stands at 10W 2D 9L from 21 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Honka, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 10L across 21 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Ilves against 1.19 for Honka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 8W 0D 2L from 10 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Honka's away record stands at 3W 2D 5L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.33 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Honka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Honka in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 10W 2D 9L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Honka have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Honka away?
Ilves's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.40 PPG; Honka away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Ilves or Honka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Honka in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won 0-4 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ilves
3
Draws
3
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Honka?
From 6 meetings on record, Ilves have won 0, Honka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Honka 2-0 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Honka?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 20%, Honka 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Ilves) and 60% (Honka).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Honka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Ilves's recent matches and 70% of Honka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Honka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Ilves's recent games and 60% of Honka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and Honka tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Honka in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ilves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Ilves and Honka drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.35 xG and Honka 0.96 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Honka landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Honka attack 1.09 / defence 1.38, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 46% | Draw 28% | Honka 27%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 29%, Honka 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Honka's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.52 PPG, Honka 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Honka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.