Ilves 1-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Haka travel to Ratinan Stadion to take on Ilves. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 July 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at Ratinan Stadion this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ilves are significantly better at Ratinan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ilves carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.51 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.89. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Ilves trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 67% and Haka 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 56% | Haka 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.50 xG and Haka 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.254 / defence 1.169 | Haka attack 0.970 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 0.897 / away 1.221. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Ilves games / 9 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 40% | Draw 26% | Haka 35%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Haka 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 50% | Haka 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 40% | Draw 26% | Haka 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Ilves 1.50 / Haka 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.254 / def 1.169 | Haka attack 0.970 / def 1.336 | league avg home 0.897 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ilves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Haka xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Haka kick off?
Ilves vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 5 July 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Haka?
Ilves 1 - 0 Haka.
Where is Ilves vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Haka part of?
Ilves vs Haka is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 40% chance of winning, Haka a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ilves and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and Haka in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Haka (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.25) and Haka's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.89
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.89
1.39
Haka xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ilves and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ilves and 1.39 for Haka, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.22 PPG, Haka on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ilves's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.89 PPG overall record — Haka travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.11 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Haka in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Haka in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Haka have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Haka away?
Ilves's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.25 PPG; Haka away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 50%, Haka 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Ilves and 100% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Haka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ilves's games and 75% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Ilves's matches and 100% of Haka's.
Do Ilves and Haka tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Haka in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Haka 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Haka 1-0 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.50 xG and Haka 1.39 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haka landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.25 / defence 1.17 against Haka attack 0.97 / defence 1.34, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 40% | Draw 26% | Haka 35%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 56%, Haka 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.22 PPG, Haka 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.