Ilves 1-0 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and AC Oulu meet at Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 2L across 6 games at Ratinan Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ilves are significantly better at Ratinan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
AC Oulu (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Ilves's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 46% versus AC Oulu 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 38% | AC Oulu 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.54 xG and AC Oulu 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.076 / defence 1.094 | AC Oulu attack 0.875 / defence 1.704. League average goals — home 0.840 / away 1.153. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.704 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Ilves games / 13 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 47% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 27%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | AC Oulu 3.70. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 33% | AC Oulu 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 47% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Ilves 1.54 / AC Oulu 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.076 / def 1.094 | AC Oulu attack 0.875 / def 1.704 | league avg home 0.840 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Ilves (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.10
AC Oulu xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs AC Oulu kick off?
Ilves vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Ilves 1 - 0 AC Oulu.
Where is Ilves vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs AC Oulu part of?
Ilves vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 47% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ilves and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and AC Oulu in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ilves's attack at 1.08x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 1.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.88x) against Ilves's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.93
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.64
1.10
AC Oulu xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ilves and 1.10 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ilves's recent record stands at 5W 2D 6L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 10L across 13 games — 0.54 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 0.85 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or AC Oulu away?
Ilves's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.00 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ilves have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 0-4 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Ilves
1
Draws
2
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 7, AC Oulu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Ilves 1-0 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and AC Oulu?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 33%, AC Oulu 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ilves) and 67% (AC Oulu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ilves have failed to score in 33% of games; AC Oulu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ilves's recent matches and 67% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ilves's matches and 67% of AC Oulu's.
Do Ilves and AC Oulu tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out AC Oulu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat AC Oulu 1-0 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.54 xG and AC Oulu 1.10 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against AC Oulu attack 0.88 / defence 1.70, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 47% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 27%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 38%, AC Oulu 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
AC Oulu's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.