Honka 0-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SJK at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Honka vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tapiolan Urheilupuisto plays host to Honka versus SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 0.78 xG and SJK 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 0.799 / defence 1.297 | SJK attack 0.896 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 1.475. Honka's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Honka games / 4 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Honka 16% | Draw 26% | SJK 59%. Fair-value odds: Honka 6.25 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 1.69. The model has a clear lean to SJK (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tapiolan Urheilupuisto • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 16% | Draw 26% | SJK 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Honka 0.78 / SJK 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 0.799 / def 1.297 | SJK attack 0.896 / def 1.027 | league avg home 0.947 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: SJK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Honka xG
Expected Goals
1.71
SJK xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs SJK kick off?
Honka vs SJK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What was the final score in Honka vs SJK?
Honka 0 - 1 SJK.
Where is Honka vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What competition is Honka vs SJK part of?
Honka vs SJK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 16% chance of winning, SJK a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Honka and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Honka and SJK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Honka's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.90x) against Honka's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
16%
6.41
26%
3.88
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Honka xG
Total xG
2.49
1.71
SJK xG
6.41
16%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
3%
35.61
27%
3.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Honka and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Honka and 1.71 for SJK, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Pre-Season
SJK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Honka have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Honka
2
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and SJK?
From 8 meetings on record, Honka have won 2, SJK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Honka and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when SJK 1-2 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Honka and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Honka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Honka 0-1 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 0.78 xG and SJK 1.71 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 0.80 / defence 1.30 against SJK attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Honka 16% | Draw 26% | SJK 59%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.