Honka 0-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Honka vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tapiolan Urheilupuisto plays host to Honka versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Honka (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Honka's home record at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
KuPS have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, KuPS have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Honka 0W, KuPS 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Honka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Honka 60% versus KuPS 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Honka 55% | KuPS 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 1.03 xG and KuPS 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 1.078 / defence 1.197 | KuPS attack 1.191 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 0.905 / away 1.129. Data: 20 Honka games / 20 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Honka 24% | Draw 25% | KuPS 51%. Fair-value odds: Honka 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | KuPS 1.96. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Honka 50% | KuPS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tapiolan Urheilupuisto • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 24% | Draw 25% | KuPS 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Honka 1.03 / KuPS 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 1.078 / def 1.197 | KuPS attack 1.191 / def 1.054 | league avg home 0.905 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: KuPS (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Honka xG
Expected Goals
1.61
KuPS xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs KuPS kick off?
Honka vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What was the final score in Honka vs KuPS?
Honka 0 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Honka vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What competition is Honka vs KuPS part of?
Honka vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 24% chance of winning, KuPS a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Honka and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and KuPS?
Record (1 meetings): Honka 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 1W.
What form are Honka and KuPS in?
Honka (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. KuPS (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Honka's attack at 1.08x the league average against KuPS's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.19x) against Honka's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
24%
4.12
25%
4.02
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Honka xG
Total xG
2.64
1.61
KuPS xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
20.58
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Honka and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Honka and 1.61 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Honka's recent record stands at 7W 4D 9L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 14W 3D 3L across 20 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Honka heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Honka have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 7W 1D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Honka are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.85 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Honka have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Honka and KuPS in coming into this match?
Honka have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while KuPS have gone 14W 3D 3L in their last 20 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Honka at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Honka at home: 1.40 PPG; KuPS away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Honka or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Honka have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, KuPS in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
KuPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Honka have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Honka
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and KuPS?
From 8 meetings on record, Honka have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Honka and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when KuPS 3-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Honka and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Honka 50%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Honka) and 40% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 40%; Honka have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Honka play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Honka's recent matches and 50% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Honka vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Honka's recent games and 40% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Honka and KuPS tend to score early?
Honka have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, KuPS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Honka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Honka 0-1 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 1.03 xG and KuPS 1.61 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Honka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 1.08 / defence 1.20 against KuPS attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Honka 24% | Draw 25% | KuPS 51%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Honka 55%, KuPS 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Honka's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Honka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.