Honka 2-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Honka vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Haka travel to Tapiolan Urheilupuisto to take on Honka. The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 June 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 0.76 xG and Haka 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 0.725 / defence 1.250 | Haka attack 0.974 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 1.382. Honka's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Honka games / 7 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Honka 17% | Draw 24% | Haka 59%. Fair-value odds: Honka 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Haka (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tapiolan Urheilupuisto • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 17% | Draw 24% | Haka 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Honka 0.76 / Haka 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 0.725 / def 1.250 | Haka attack 0.974 / def 1.195 | league avg home 0.878 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Haka (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Honka xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Haka xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs Haka kick off?
Honka vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What was the final score in Honka vs Haka?
Honka 2 - 1 Haka.
Where is Honka vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What competition is Honka vs Haka part of?
Honka vs Haka is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 17% chance of winning, Haka a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Honka and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Honka and Haka in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Honka's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Honka's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
17%
6.01
24%
4.18
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Honka xG
Total xG
2.44
1.68
Haka xG
6.01
17%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
3%
32.29
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Honka and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Honka and 1.68 for Haka, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Pre-Season
Haka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Honka's record when hosting Haka specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Honka
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Haka?
From 8 meetings on record, Honka have won 2, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Honka and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2023, when Honka 0-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Honka and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Honka defy the odds to beat Haka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka beat Haka 2-1 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 0.76 xG and Haka 1.68 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Honka beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against Haka attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Honka 17% | Draw 24% | Haka 59%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Honka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.