Haka 0-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tehtaan kenttä plays host to Haka versus VPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Haka (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 4W 2D 4L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tehtaan kenttä. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tehtaan kenttä this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 2.02 xG and VPS 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.079 / defence 0.908 | VPS attack 1.252 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.379. VPS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. VPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Haka games / 5 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 48% | Draw 21% | VPS 30%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | VPS 3.33. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 48% | Draw 21% | VPS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Haka 2.02 / VPS 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.079 / def 0.908 | VPS attack 1.252 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Haka (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.57
VPS xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs VPS kick off?
Haka vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs VPS?
Haka 0 - 2 VPS.
Where is Haka vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs VPS part of?
Haka vs VPS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 48% chance of winning, VPS a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Haka and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and VPS in?
Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Haka home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.08) and VPS's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VPS's attack (1.25x) against Haka's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 27/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
48%
2.07
21%
4.66
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Haka xG
Total xG
3.59
1.57
VPS xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
4%
24.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Haka and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Haka and 1.57 for VPS, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Pre-Season
VPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
1
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, VPS have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haka and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when VPS 1-0 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
VPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Haka 0-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 2.02 xG and VPS 1.57 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haka fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against VPS attack 1.25 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 48% | Draw 21% | VPS 30%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.