Haka 4-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Haka take on SJK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Haka welcome SJK to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 1W 2D 6L from 9 home games — 0.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SJK — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Haka in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
SJK in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Haka 37% | SJK 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Haka 42% | SJK 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 0.64 xG and SJK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.653 / defence 1.201 | SJK attack 0.596 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 0.905 / away 1.129. Haka's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Haka games / 20 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 26% | Draw 37% | SJK 36%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | SJK 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Haka's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 26%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 44% | SJK 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 26% | Draw 37% | SJK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Haka 0.64 / SJK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.653 / def 1.201 | SJK attack 0.596 / def 1.088 | league avg home 0.905 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.81
SJK xG
26%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs SJK kick off?
Haka vs SJK kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs SJK?
Haka 4 - 0 SJK.
Where is Haka vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs SJK part of?
Haka vs SJK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 26% chance of winning, SJK a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Haka vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Haka and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and SJK in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. SJK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 0.65x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.78
37%
2.68
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Haka xG
Total xG
1.45
0.81
SJK xG
3.78
26%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.80
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 18.9 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.0%.
How many goals are Haka and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Haka and 0.81 for SJK, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Haka have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 4W 3D 12L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 10W 3D 6L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
On the road, SJK have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.26 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 26%.
Defensively: SJK in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and SJK in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while SJK have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.56 PPG; SJK away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Haka or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SJK in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and SJK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting SJK specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Haka and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SJK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Haka 44% BTTS, SJK 11%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Haka and 22% for SJK.
On the defensive side: SJK in 56%; Haka have failed to score in 44% of games; SJK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Haka's recent matches and 11% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Haka's recent games and 22% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and SJK tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SJK in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haka run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat SJK 4-0 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 0.64 xG and SJK 0.81 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.65 / defence 1.20 against SJK attack 0.60 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 26% | Draw 37% | SJK 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 42%, SJK 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Haka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.