Haka 2-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host KuPS at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 July 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 5W 4D 1L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Haka are significantly better at Tehtaan kenttä than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. KuPS's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Haka's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Haka have won 0, KuPS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2022, ended 1–2 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
KuPS in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 48% versus KuPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 48% | KuPS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.22 xG and KuPS 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.049 / defence 1.029 | KuPS attack 0.936 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.436. KuPS's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Haka games / 37 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 33% | Draw 26% | KuPS 41%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | KuPS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 70% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 33% | Draw 26% | KuPS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Haka 1.22 / KuPS 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.049 / def 1.029 | KuPS attack 0.936 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: KuPS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.38
KuPS xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs KuPS kick off?
Haka vs KuPS kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs KuPS?
Haka 2 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Haka vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs KuPS part of?
Haka vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 33% chance of winning, KuPS a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Haka and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
Record (1 meetings): Haka 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 1W.
What form are Haka and KuPS in?
Haka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.05x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.80
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Haka xG
Total xG
2.60
1.38
KuPS xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Haka and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Haka and 1.38 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haka come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 9D 17L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KuPS sit at 2.24 PPG from 42 outings (28W 10D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haka's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, KuPS have taken 2.15 points per game from 20 outings (13W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.79 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and KuPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 16W 9D 17L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while KuPS have gone 28W 10D 4L in their last 42 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.50 PPG; KuPS away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Haka or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, KuPS in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and KuPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haka
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 55%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Haka) and 40% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Haka's recent matches and 50% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Haka's recent games and 40% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and KuPS tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, KuPS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat KuPS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat KuPS 2-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.22 xG and KuPS 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against KuPS attack 0.94 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 33% | Draw 26% | KuPS 41%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 48%, KuPS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Haka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.