Haka 0-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host KuPS at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 0W 2D 2L at Tehtaan kenttä — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. KuPS's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Haka's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
KuPS in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 60% versus KuPS 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 60% | KuPS 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 0.91 xG and KuPS 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.881 / defence 1.309 | KuPS attack 1.090 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 0.890 / away 1.183. Data: 10 Haka games / 11 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 20% | Draw 25% | KuPS 56%. Fair-value odds: Haka 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | KuPS 1.79. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Haka 75% | KuPS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 20% | Draw 25% | KuPS 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Haka 0.91 / KuPS 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.881 / def 1.309 | KuPS attack 1.090 / def 1.155 | league avg home 0.890 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: KuPS (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.69
KuPS xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs KuPS kick off?
Haka vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs KuPS?
Haka 0 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Haka vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs KuPS part of?
Haka vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 20% chance of winning, KuPS a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Haka and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and KuPS in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 0.88x the league average against KuPS's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
20%
5.05
25%
4.06
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Haka xG
Total xG
2.59
1.69
KuPS xG
5.05
20%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
4%
27.30
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Haka and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Haka and 1.69 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haka come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 2D 6L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KuPS sit at 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haka's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, KuPS have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.70 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and KuPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while KuPS have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.50 PPG; KuPS away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Haka or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, KuPS in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and KuPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haka
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 75%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Haka) and 50% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Haka's games and 50% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Haka's recent games and 50% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and KuPS tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, KuPS in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Haka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 0.91 xG and KuPS 1.69 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.88 / defence 1.31 against KuPS attack 1.09 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 20% | Draw 25% | KuPS 56%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 60%, KuPS 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.