Haka 3-2 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter Turku at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Inter Turku fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter Turku make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 18 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Haka (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's home record at Tehtaan kenttä: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Haka are significantly better at Tehtaan kenttä than their overall form suggests.
Inter Turku's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Inter Turku in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haka lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Haka winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Inter Turku goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 45% versus Inter Turku 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 45% | Inter Turku 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.40 xG and Inter Turku 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.977 / defence 0.982 | Inter Turku attack 1.039 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.417. Data: 35 Haka games / 35 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 36% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 38%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Inter Turku 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter Turku at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter Turku if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haka 60% | Inter Turku 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Monday 18 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 36% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Haka 1.40 / Inter Turku 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.977 / def 0.982 | Inter Turku attack 1.039 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Inter Turku xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Inter Turku kick off?
Haka vs Inter Turku kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 18 July 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Inter Turku?
Haka 3 - 2 Inter Turku.
Where is Haka vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Inter Turku part of?
Haka vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 36% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haka and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Inter Turku?
Record (1 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 0 | Inter Turku 0W.
What form are Haka and Inter Turku in?
Haka (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Inter Turku (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haka's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Inter Turku's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Inter Turku's attack (1.04x) against Haka's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.92
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Haka xG
Total xG
2.84
1.45
Inter Turku xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Haka and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Haka and 1.45 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haka's recent record stands at 15W 8D 17L from 40 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 15L across 40 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Haka against 1.58 for Inter Turku. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Haka have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 8W 2D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Haka are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter Turku in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 19W 6D 15L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Inter Turku away?
Haka's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.42 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Haka or Inter Turku been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Inter Turku in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 26 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter Turku — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
3
Draws
3
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Inter Turku have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2025, when Haka 0-1 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Inter Turku?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haka see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 53%, Inter Turku 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Haka) and 63% (Inter Turku).
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haka's games and 68% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Haka's recent games and 63% of Inter Turku's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat Inter Turku 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Inter Turku 3-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.40 xG and Inter Turku 1.45 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Inter Turku attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 36% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 38%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 45%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter Turku's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.32 PPG, Inter Turku 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.