Haka 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Ilves travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 June 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Haka have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Haka have won 2, Ilves 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 3–2 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Ilves in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 46% versus Ilves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 48% | Ilves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.43 xG and Ilves 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.326 / defence 1.285 | Ilves attack 0.970 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.054. Haka carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Haka games / 31 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 38% | Draw 30% | Ilves 33%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Ilves 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 70% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 38% | Draw 30% | Ilves 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Haka 1.43 / Ilves 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.326 / def 1.285 | Ilves attack 0.970 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Haka (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Ilves xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Ilves kick off?
Haka vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 7 June 2023 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Ilves?
Haka 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Haka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Ilves part of?
Haka vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 38% chance of winning, Ilves a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haka and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
Record (2 meetings): Haka 2W | Draws 0 | Ilves 0W.
What form are Haka and Ilves in?
Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haka's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
38%
2.65
30%
3.36
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Haka xG
Total xG
2.74
1.31
Ilves xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Haka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Haka and 1.31 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 54 games, going 24W 11D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.30 PPG from 54 outings (20W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.54 PPG, Ilves on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 12W 6D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.33 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 24W 11D 19L in their last 54 games (1.54 PPG), while Ilves have gone 20W 10D 24L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Ilves away?
Haka's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.56 PPG; Ilves away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Haka or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ilves in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 56%, Ilves 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Haka) and 52% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 26% of games; Ilves in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Haka's games and 56% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Haka's recent games and 52% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Ilves tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ilves in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka and Ilves finished level at 1-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.43 xG and Ilves 1.31 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.33 / defence 1.28 against Ilves attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 38% | Draw 30% | Ilves 33%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 48%, Ilves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.54 PPG, Ilves 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.