Haka 0-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Ilves travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 home games — 0.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ilves — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ilves in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 39% versus Ilves 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Haka 44% | Ilves 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 0.99 xG and Ilves 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.720 / defence 1.171 | Ilves attack 0.590 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.151. Haka's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Haka games / 19 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 39% | Draw 33% | Ilves 28%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Ilves 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Ilves's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ilves (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: Haka 50% | Ilves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 39% | Draw 33% | Ilves 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Haka 0.99 / Ilves 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.720 / def 1.171 | Ilves attack 0.590 / def 1.468 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Haka (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ilves xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Ilves kick off?
Haka vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Ilves?
Haka 0 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Haka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Ilves part of?
Haka vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 39% chance of winning, Ilves a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Haka and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and Ilves in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Ilves (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haka's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
39%
2.57
33%
3.05
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Haka xG
Total xG
1.79
0.80
Ilves xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Haka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Haka and 0.80 for Ilves, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 3D 11L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (7W 2D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 1W 2D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.12 points per game from 8 outings (0W 1D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 0.89 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Ilves have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Ilves away?
Haka's home record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.62 PPG; Ilves away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2025, when Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 50%, Ilves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Haka) and 38% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 38% of games; Ilves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haka's recent matches and 50% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Haka's recent games and 38% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Ilves tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ilves in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ilves defy the odds to beat Haka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 0.99 xG and Ilves 0.80 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Ilves attack 0.59 / defence 1.47, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 39% | Draw 33% | Ilves 28%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 44%, Ilves 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ilves's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.