AC Oulu 0-6 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 12 as AC Oulu welcome VPS to Raatin stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AC Oulu stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
VPS — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VPS have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AC Oulu are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
AC Oulu trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
VPS trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 54% versus VPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 64% | VPS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.50 xG and VPS 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.023 / defence 0.959 | VPS attack 1.521 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.353. VPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.521 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 AC Oulu games / 11 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 29% | Draw 22% | VPS 49%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | VPS 2.04. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AC Oulu (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 50% | VPS 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 29% | Draw 22% | VPS 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG AC Oulu 1.50 / VPS 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.023 / def 0.959 | VPS attack 1.521 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: VPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.97
VPS xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs VPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs VPS?
AC Oulu 0 - 6 VPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs VPS part of?
AC Oulu vs VPS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 29% chance of winning, VPS a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both AC Oulu and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and VPS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. VPS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AC Oulu's attack rating (1.02) and VPS's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
29%
3.41
22%
4.59
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
3.47
1.97
VPS xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.20
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
4%
24.55
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.97 for VPS, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AC Oulu's recent record stands at 5W 2D 4L from 11 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 6L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 1.55 PPG, VPS on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AC Oulu have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 4W 0D 2L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.18 PPG overall record — VPS travel well.
The Goals Picture
AC Oulu are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and VPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while VPS have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.83 PPG; VPS away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, VPS in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AC Oulu and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2026, when VPS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Oulu's record when hosting VPS specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when VPS 5-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 50%, VPS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AC Oulu and 83% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; VPS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AC Oulu's games and 67% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AC Oulu's matches and 83% of VPS's.
Do AC Oulu and VPS tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VPS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VPS run riot with a 0-6 hammering of AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat AC Oulu 0-6 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.50 xG and VPS 1.97 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VPS outscored their 1.97 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against VPS attack 1.52 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 29% | Draw 22% | VPS 49%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 64%, VPS 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
VPS's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.55 PPG, VPS 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.