AC Oulu 1-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 53%, yet in-form SJK provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Oulu vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and SJK meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SJK are 0.90 PPG clear of AC Oulu in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 44% versus SJK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 41% | SJK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.81 xG and SJK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.089 / defence 1.065 | SJK attack 0.819 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.292. SJK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 AC Oulu games / 31 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 53% | Draw 24% | SJK 23%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | SJK 4.35. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SJK (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AC Oulu 50% | SJK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 53% | Draw 24% | SJK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG AC Oulu 1.81 / SJK 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.089 / def 1.065 | SJK attack 0.819 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SJK xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs SJK kick off?
AC Oulu vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
AC Oulu 1 - 0 SJK.
Where is AC Oulu vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs SJK part of?
AC Oulu vs SJK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 53% chance of winning, SJK a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AC Oulu and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and SJK in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AC Oulu's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.82x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.14
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.94
1.13
SJK xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.13 for SJK, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 7W 5D 15L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 14W 6D 7L from 27 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L).
On the road, SJK have gone 6W 2D 5L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.67 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and SJK in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while SJK have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.31 PPG; SJK away: 1.54 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, SJK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AC Oulu
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SJK 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 46%, SJK 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (AC Oulu) and 46% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 38%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 31% of games; SJK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 31% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of AC Oulu's recent games and 46% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and SJK tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SJK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out SJK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat SJK 1-0 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.81 xG and SJK 1.13 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SJK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against SJK attack 0.82 / defence 1.26, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 53% | Draw 24% | SJK 23%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 41%, SJK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with AC Oulu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.