AC Oulu 0-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and KuPS meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Raatin stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
KuPS (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for AC Oulu, 2.00 for KuPS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: AC Oulu 0W, KuPS 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 52% versus KuPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 52% | KuPS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.81 xG and KuPS 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.860 / defence 1.268 | KuPS attack 0.962 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.052. KuPS's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 AC Oulu games / 28 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 20% | Draw 36% | KuPS 44%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 5.00 | Draw 2.78 | KuPS 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 40% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 20% | Draw 36% | KuPS 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG AC Oulu 0.81 / KuPS 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.860 / def 1.268 | KuPS attack 0.962 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: KuPS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.28
KuPS xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs KuPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
AC Oulu 0 - 2 KuPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs KuPS part of?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 20% chance of winning, KuPS a 44% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AC Oulu and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
Record (2 meetings): AC Oulu 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 2W.
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.86x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.96x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
20%
5.02
36%
2.75
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.09
1.28
KuPS xG
5.02
20%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.28 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 11D 23L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 34W 13D 7L from 54 games, 2.13 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 16W 4D 6L from 26 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.65 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 20W 11D 23L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while KuPS have gone 34W 13D 7L in their last 54 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.62 PPG; KuPS away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, KuPS in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, KuPS have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 46%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AC Oulu) and 46% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 54% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AC Oulu's recent games and 46% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and KuPS tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, KuPS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat AC Oulu 0-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.81 xG and KuPS 1.28 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against KuPS attack 0.96 / defence 0.73, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 20% | Draw 36% | KuPS 44%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 52%, KuPS 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.