AC Oulu 0-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and KuPS meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 24 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.73 xG and KuPS 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.658 / defence 1.436 | KuPS attack 1.039 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 1.382. AC Oulu's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KuPS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 AC Oulu games / 9 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 12% | Draw 19% | KuPS 68%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 8.33 | Draw 5.26 | KuPS 1.47. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 12% | Draw 19% | KuPS 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 45% | xG AC Oulu 0.73 / KuPS 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.658 / def 1.436 | KuPS attack 1.039 / def 1.263 | league avg home 0.878 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: KuPS (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
2.06
KuPS xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs KuPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
AC Oulu 0 - 2 KuPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs KuPS part of?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 12% chance of winning, KuPS a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AC Oulu and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.66x the league average against KuPS's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.04x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 7/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
12%
8.27
19%
5.14
68%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.79
2.06
KuPS xG
8.27
12%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
1.46
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
13%
7.87
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
2%
65.09
33%
3.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for AC Oulu and 2.06 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Pre-Season
KuPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, KuPS have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat AC Oulu 0-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.73 xG and KuPS 2.06 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.66 / defence 1.44 against KuPS attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 12% | Draw 19% | KuPS 68%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.