AC Oulu 2-1 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Kooteepee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 5 as AC Oulu welcome Kooteepee to Raatin stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AC Oulu — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Kooteepee have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (AC Oulu) versus 0.30 (Kooteepee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AC Oulu, 0 for Kooteepee and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AC Oulu in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Kooteepee in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 42% versus Kooteepee 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 38% | Kooteepee 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.43 xG and Kooteepee 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.804 / defence 1.133 | Kooteepee attack 0.839 / defence 1.848. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.080. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.848 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 AC Oulu games / 22 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 27% | Kooteepee 27%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Kooteepee 3.70. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: AC Oulu 50% | Kooteepee 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 27% | Kooteepee 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG AC Oulu 1.43 / Kooteepee 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.804 / def 1.133 | Kooteepee attack 0.839 / def 1.848 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Kooteepee xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Kooteepee kick off?
AC Oulu vs Kooteepee kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
AC Oulu 2 - 1 Kooteepee.
Where is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee part of?
AC Oulu vs Kooteepee is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 46% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AC Oulu and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
Record (2 meetings): AC Oulu 1W | Draws 1 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are AC Oulu and Kooteepee in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.80x the league average against Kooteepee's defence at 1.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.76
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.46
1.03
Kooteepee xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.03 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 5D 16L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.42 PPG from 26 outings (2W 5D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 0.77 PPG, Kooteepee on 0.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AC Oulu's home form reads 3W 2D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.42 points per game from 12 outings (1W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.92 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 5W 5D 16L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 19L in their last 26 (0.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Kooteepee away?
AC Oulu's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 0.92 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Oulu's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AC Oulu
1
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 7, Kooteepee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when AC Oulu 0-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
AC Oulu have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 42%, Kooteepee 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (AC Oulu) and 75% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 42% of games; Kooteepee in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 58% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of AC Oulu's recent games and 75% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Kooteepee tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Kooteepee 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Kooteepee 2-1 at Raatin stadion, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.43 xG and Kooteepee 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Kooteepee attack 0.84 / defence 1.85, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 46% | Draw 27% | Kooteepee 27%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 38%, Kooteepee 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Kooteepee's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.77 PPG, Kooteepee 0.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.