AC Oulu 1-1 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kooteepee at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Kooteepee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 13 as AC Oulu welcome Kooteepee to Raatin stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AC Oulu — All Games: 1W 0D 8L from 9 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 0W 0D 5L from 5 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 2D 6L from 9 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.56 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Kooteepee have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.33 PPG (AC Oulu) versus 0.56 (Kooteepee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AC Oulu, 0 for Kooteepee and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2021, ended 3–1 with AC Oulu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AC Oulu in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Kooteepee in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 44% versus Kooteepee 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 44% | Kooteepee 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.67 xG and Kooteepee 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.597 / defence 1.485 | Kooteepee attack 0.777 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 0.897 / away 1.221. AC Oulu's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 AC Oulu games / 9 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 17% | Draw 28% | Kooteepee 55%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Kooteepee 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Kooteepee (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kooteepee as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 20% | Kooteepee 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 17% | Draw 28% | Kooteepee 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG AC Oulu 0.67 / Kooteepee 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.597 / def 1.485 | Kooteepee attack 0.777 / def 1.241 | league avg home 0.897 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Kooteepee (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Kooteepee xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Kooteepee kick off?
AC Oulu vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 5 July 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
AC Oulu 1 - 1 Kooteepee.
Where is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee part of?
AC Oulu vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 17% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kooteepee the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AC Oulu and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
Record (1 meetings): AC Oulu 1W | Draws 0 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are AC Oulu and Kooteepee in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 1W-0D-8L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.60x the league average against Kooteepee's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kooteepee Win
17%
5.84
28%
3.53
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.08
1.41
Kooteepee xG
5.84
17%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
51%
1.94
Win to Nil
4%
23.92
28%
3.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 17.7 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.41 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 0D 8L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 0.33 PPG, Kooteepee on 0.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AC Oulu's home form reads 0W 0D 5L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kooteepee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 8L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Kooteepee away?
Kooteepee's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 0.00 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Oulu's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AC Oulu
1
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 7, Kooteepee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when AC Oulu 0-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
AC Oulu have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AC Oulu 20% BTTS, Kooteepee 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for AC Oulu and 40% for Kooteepee.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 80% of games; Kooteepee in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 40% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of AC Oulu's recent games and 40% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Kooteepee tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu and Kooteepee share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 13, as AC Oulu and Kooteepee drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.67 xG and Kooteepee 1.41 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.60 / defence 1.49 against Kooteepee attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 17% | Draw 28% | Kooteepee 55%, with Kooteepee to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 44%, Kooteepee 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Kooteepee's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.33 PPG, Kooteepee 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.