AC Oulu 0-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Ilves meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.13 xG and Ilves 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Ilves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 0.654. Data: 0 AC Oulu games / 0 Ilves games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 47% | Draw 32% | Ilves 21%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Ilves 4.76. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Ilves's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Oulu at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 47% | Draw 32% | Ilves 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG AC Oulu 1.13 / Ilves 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Ilves attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.152 / away 0.654 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Ilves xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Ilves kick off?
AC Oulu vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
AC Oulu 0 - 2 Ilves.
Where is AC Oulu vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Ilves part of?
AC Oulu vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 47% chance of winning, Ilves a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both AC Oulu and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.85x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.85x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
47%
2.11
32%
3.14
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
1.76
0.64
Ilves xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for AC Oulu and 0.64 for Ilves, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Pre-Season
Ilves
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ilves have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 0-4 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, Ilves have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Ilves 1-0 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat AC Oulu 0-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.13 xG and Ilves 0.64 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Ilves attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 47% | Draw 32% | Ilves 21%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.