AC Oulu 0-2 Honka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Honka at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Honka make the trip to Raatin stadion to face AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 11 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.90 xG and Honka 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.747 / defence 1.298 | Honka attack 0.859 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 0.909 / away 1.570. AC Oulu's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Honka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 AC Oulu games / 6 Honka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 19% | Draw 23% | Honka 57%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Honka 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Honka (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Honka at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 19% | Draw 23% | Honka 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG AC Oulu 0.90 / Honka 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.747 / def 1.298 | Honka attack 0.859 / def 1.333 | league avg home 0.909 / away 1.570 • Poisson stance: Honka (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Honka xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Honka kick off?
AC Oulu vs Honka kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 11 June 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Honka?
AC Oulu 0 - 2 Honka.
Where is AC Oulu vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Honka part of?
AC Oulu vs Honka is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 19% chance of winning, Honka a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AC Oulu and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Honka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Honka in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AC Oulu's attack rating (0.75) and Honka's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Honka's attack (0.86x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
19%
5.20
23%
4.27
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.65
1.75
Honka xG
5.20
19%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
3%
29.94
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.75 for Honka, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Honka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Pre-Season
Honka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Honka have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won 6-1 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
AC Oulu
1
Draws
6
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Honka?
From 8 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 1, Honka have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when Honka 5-0 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Honka?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Honka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka beat AC Oulu 0-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.90 xG and Honka 1.75 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.75 / defence 1.30 against Honka attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 19% | Draw 23% | Honka 57%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.