Sunderland vs Ipswich – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Sunderland welcome Ipswich to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Sunderland have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ipswich — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ipswich have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ipswich's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.20 PPG, Ipswich 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sunderland, 3 for Ipswich and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 49% versus Ipswich 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 44% | Ipswich 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.58 xG and Ipswich 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.806 / defence 0.991 | Ipswich attack 0.975 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.271. Ipswich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sunderland games / 5 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 29%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Ipswich 3.45. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sunderland 20% | Ipswich 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Ipswich | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Sunderland 1.58 / Ipswich 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.806 / def 0.991 | Ipswich attack 0.975 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Ipswich xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Ipswich kick off?
Sunderland vs Ipswich is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Stadium of Light.
Where is Sunderland vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Ipswich part of?
Sunderland vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 45% chance of winning, Ipswich a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sunderland and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Ipswich?
Record (5 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 3W.
What form are Sunderland and Ipswich in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Ipswich (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.81) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.73
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.81
1.23
Ipswich xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.23 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 13D 15L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich's form line: 22W 11D 10L from 43 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sunderland.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 9W 5D 7L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.67 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Ipswich
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Ipswich away?
Sunderland's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.71 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ipswich in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sunderland's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Ipswich?
From 5 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 43%, Ipswich 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sunderland) and 52% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ipswich in 33%; Sunderland have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sunderland's recent matches and 57% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sunderland's recent games and 52% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Ipswich tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.