Hull City vs Fulham – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hull City at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at MKM Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MKM Stadium.
Fulham (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Hull City's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hull City, 2 for Fulham and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Fulham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 54% | Fulham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.94 xG and Fulham 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.779 / defence 0.836 | Fulham attack 0.700 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.272. Hull City's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Hull City games / 43 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 37% | Draw 36% | Fulham 26%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Fulham 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Fulham's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Fulham 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 37% | Draw 36% | Fulham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Hull City 0.94 / Fulham 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.779 / def 0.836 | Fulham attack 0.700 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Hull City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Fulham xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Fulham kick off?
Hull City vs Fulham is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at MKM Stadium.
Where is Hull City vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Fulham part of?
Hull City vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 37% chance of winning, Fulham a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Hull City and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Hull City and Fulham in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hull City's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.70x) against Hull City's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
37%
2.67
36%
2.76
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.69
0.74
Fulham xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Hull City and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Hull City and 0.74 for Fulham, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 20W 10D 13L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham's form line: 15W 9D 19L from 43 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Hull City against 1.26 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fulham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.21 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Fulham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while Fulham have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Fulham away?
Hull City's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.57 PPG; Fulham away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Hull City or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fulham in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hull City
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Hull City 0-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fulham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 52%, Fulham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 43% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 29% of games; Fulham in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hull City's recent matches and 48% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 43% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Fulham tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fulham in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.