Plymouth vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plymouth at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Notts County travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 7W 1D 2L at Home Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Notts County have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 55% versus Notts County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Notts County 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.85 xG and Notts County 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.265 / defence 0.917 | Notts County attack 0.800 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.334. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Plymouth games / 7 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 26% | Notts County 18%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Notts County 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Notts County 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 26% | Notts County 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Plymouth 1.85 / Notts County 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.265 / def 0.917 | Notts County attack 0.800 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Notts County xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Notts County kick off?
Plymouth vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Monday 29 March 2027 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Notts County part of?
Plymouth vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 56% chance of winning, Notts County a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plymouth and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Notts County (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.26x the league average against Notts County's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.84
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.83
0.98
Notts County xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
35.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.98 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Notts County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 53 games, going 26W 8D 19L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.75 PPG from 53 outings (27W 12D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.62 PPG, Notts County on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 12W 4D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.55 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Notts County in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 26W 8D 19L in their last 53 games (1.62 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Notts County away?
Notts County's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.54 PPG; Notts County away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Notts County in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 58%, Notts County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 46% (Notts County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Plymouth's recent games and 46% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Notts County tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Notts County in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.