Notts County vs Peterborough – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Notts County at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Peterborough make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Form
Notts County (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 4W 3D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Peterborough have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Notts County. A 0.80 PPG lead over Peterborough (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Notts County register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Peterborough in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 54% versus Peterborough 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 52% | Peterborough 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.44 xG and Peterborough 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.793 / defence 1.052 | Peterborough attack 0.744 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.334. Notts County's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Notts County games / 53 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 44% | Draw 31% | Peterborough 25%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Peterborough 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 70% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 44% | Draw 31% | Peterborough 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Notts County 1.44 / Peterborough 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.793 / def 1.052 | Peterborough attack 0.744 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Notts County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Peterborough xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Peterborough kick off?
Notts County vs Peterborough is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 27 April 2027 at Meadow Lane.
Where is Notts County vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Peterborough part of?
Notts County vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 44% chance of winning, Peterborough a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Notts County and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Peterborough in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Notts County's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.74x) against Notts County's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 7/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.27
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.49
1.04
Peterborough xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Notts County and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Notts County and 1.04 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Notts County come into this having played 54 games, going 27W 12D 15L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.07 PPG from 54 outings (16W 10D 28L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Notts County's home form reads 15W 6D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (7W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Notts County are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.26 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Early Season
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 27W 12D 15L in their last 54 games (1.72 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 16W 10D 28L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Peterborough away?
Notts County's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.89 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.89 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 56%, Peterborough 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Notts County) and 52% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Peterborough in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Notts County's games and 56% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Notts County's recent games and 52% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Peterborough tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.