Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to One Call Stadium to face Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 42. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at One Call Stadium, Mansfield Town have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Mansfield Town are significantly better at One Call Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mansfield Town, 1 for Burton Albion and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 55% versus Burton Albion 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 49% | Burton Albion 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 2.06 xG and Burton Albion 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.212 / defence 0.910 | Burton Albion attack 0.832 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.334. Data: 53 Mansfield Town games / 53 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 60% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 16%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Burton Albion 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 70% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 60% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Mansfield Town 2.06 / Burton Albion 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.212 / def 0.910 | Burton Albion attack 0.832 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Burton Albion xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at One Call Stadium.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion part of?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 60% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mansfield Town and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
Record (5 meetings): Mansfield Town 0W | Draws 4 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 1.21x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.83x) against Mansfield Town's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.19
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
3.06
1.01
Burton Albion xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
2%
48.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.01 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 18W 19D 16L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion's form line: 15W 18D 20L from 53 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.19 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 10D 11L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 18W 19D 16L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 18D 20L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Burton Albion away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.62 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
From 5 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Burton Albion 2-2 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 58%, Burton Albion 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mansfield Town) and 54% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Burton Albion in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mansfield Town's games and 58% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Mansfield Town's matches and 54% of Burton Albion's.
Do Mansfield Town and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.