AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season.
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for AFC Wimbledon, 1.90 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 1W, Plymouth 3W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 43% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 46% | Plymouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.05 xG and Plymouth 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.678 / defence 0.689 | Plymouth attack 1.252 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.334. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 AFC Wimbledon games / 53 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 31% | Draw 34% | Plymouth 36%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Plymouth 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Plymouth 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 31% | Draw 34% | Plymouth 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.05 / Plymouth 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.678 / def 0.689 | Plymouth attack 1.252 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Plymouth xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 31% chance of winning, Plymouth a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
Record (4 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 3W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.25x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
31%
3.26
34%
2.98
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.20
1.15
Plymouth xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.15 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 18W 11D 25L from 54 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 20L across 54 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.59 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 10W 6D 11L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 14W 4D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.65 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 11D 25L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 26W 8D 20L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.33 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 37%, Plymouth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AFC Wimbledon) and 59% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 52% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 59% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.