Watford 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Watford at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Watford vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vicarage Road plays host to Watford versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Watford have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Watford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Watford at Vicarage Road this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vicarage Road. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Watford are significantly better at Vicarage Road than their overall form suggests.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, QPR have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Watford's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of QPR's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Watford 2W, QPR 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Watford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Watford half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Watford 54% versus QPR 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Watford 54% | QPR 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Watford 1.24 xG and QPR 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Watford attack 1.037 / defence 0.702 | QPR attack 0.899 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.044. Watford's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Watford games / 63 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Watford 49% | Draw 32% | QPR 19%. Fair-value odds: Watford 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | QPR 5.26. Watford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — QPR's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Watford as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Watford if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Watford 40% | QPR 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Watford vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vicarage Road • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Watford 49% | Draw 32% | QPR 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Watford 1.24 / QPR 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Watford attack 1.037 / def 0.702 | QPR attack 0.899 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Watford (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Watford xG
Expected Goals
0.66
QPR xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Watford vs QPR kick off?
Watford vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Vicarage Road.
What was the final score in Watford vs QPR?
Watford 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Watford vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Vicarage Road.
What competition is Watford vs QPR part of?
Watford vs QPR is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Watford vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Watford a 49% chance of winning, QPR a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Watford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Watford vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Watford and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Watford vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and QPR?
Record (4 meetings): Watford 2W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Watford and QPR in?
Watford (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. QPR (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Watford vs QPR?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Watford's attack at 1.04x the league average against QPR's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.90x) against Watford's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Watford Win
49%
2.03
32%
3.11
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Watford xG
Total xG
1.90
0.66
QPR xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Watford vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Watford and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Watford and 0.66 for QPR, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Watford vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Watford's recent record stands at 22W 19D 22L from 63 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Watford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 27L across 63 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Watford against 1.11 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Watford have managed 13W 10D 8L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 10W 8D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Watford are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Watford
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Watford and QPR in coming into this match?
Watford have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while QPR have gone 17W 19D 27L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Watford at home or QPR away?
Watford's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Watford at home: 1.58 PPG; QPR away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Watford won 4-0 on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Watford have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Watford
1
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and QPR?
From 8 meetings on record, Watford have won 3, QPR have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Watford and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when QPR 2-1 Watford.
Who has won more matches between Watford and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Watford see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
QPR see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Watford 55%, QPR 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Watford) and 36% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Watford keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; QPR in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Watford home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Watford play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Watford's recent matches and 39% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Watford vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Watford's recent games and 36% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Watford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 18, as Watford and QPR drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 1.24 xG and QPR 0.66 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Watford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 1.04 / defence 0.70 against QPR attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Watford 49% | Draw 32% | QPR 19%, with Watford to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 54%, QPR 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Watford's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Watford 1.35 PPG, QPR 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Watford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.