QPR vs Charlton – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 41 as QPR welcome Charlton to Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Loftus Road, QPR have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charlton — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: QPR 1.30 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for QPR, 0 for Charlton and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 63% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 61% | Charlton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.45 xG and Charlton 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.836 / defence 1.031 | Charlton attack 0.897 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Data: 54 QPR games / 54 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 42% | Draw 30% | Charlton 28%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 42% | Draw 30% | Charlton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG QPR 1.45 / Charlton 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.836 / def 1.031 | Charlton attack 0.897 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: QPR (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Charlton kick off?
QPR vs Charlton is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 6 April 2027 at Loftus Road.
Where is QPR vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Charlton part of?
QPR vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 42% chance of winning, Charlton a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both QPR and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Charlton?
Record (3 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 2 | Charlton 0W.
What form are QPR and Charlton in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
QPR's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.33
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
QPR xG
Total xG
2.61
1.16
Charlton xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are QPR and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for QPR and 1.16 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, QPR have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 14D 21L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 16W 17D 21L from 54 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.31 PPG, Charlton on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 5W 11D 11L from 27 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.94 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Charlton in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Charlton away?
QPR's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.41 PPG; Charlton away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
QPR
2
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Charlton?
From 3 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Charlton 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Charlton?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 70%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (QPR) and 41% (Charlton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 59% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of QPR's matches and 41% of Charlton's.
Do QPR and Charlton tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charlton in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.