Derby vs West Ham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates West Ham at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host West Ham at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 5W 1D 4L at Pride Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
West Ham — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, West Ham have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. West Ham's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Derby's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Derby, 1 for West Ham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
West Ham in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 61% versus West Ham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 56% | West Ham 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.43 xG and West Ham 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.786 / defence 1.251 | West Ham attack 1.165 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Derby's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. West Ham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Derby games / 8 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 28% | Draw 26% | West Ham 46%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | West Ham 2.17. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | West Ham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs West Ham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 28% | Draw 26% | West Ham 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Derby 1.43 / West Ham 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.786 / def 1.251 | West Ham attack 1.165 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: West Ham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.83
West Ham xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs West Ham kick off?
Derby vs West Ham is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs West Ham part of?
Derby vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 28% chance of winning, West Ham a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Derby and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Ham?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | West Ham 1W.
What form are Derby and West Ham in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. West Ham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
28%
3.51
26%
3.86
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Derby xG
Total xG
3.25
1.83
West Ham xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
21.88
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Derby and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Derby and 1.83 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 7D 19L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (14W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.46 PPG, West Ham on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.48 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and West Ham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 20W 7D 19L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while West Ham have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or West Ham away?
Derby's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.52 PPG; West Ham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Derby
0
Draws
1
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Ham?
From 1 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, West Ham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when West Ham 3-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 61%, West Ham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Derby) and 61% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; West Ham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Derby's games and 56% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Derby's recent games and 61% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and West Ham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, West Ham in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.