Cardiff vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host QPR at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
QPR — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, QPR have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cardiff at 1.00 PPG versus QPR's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
QPR have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Cardiff's 2 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with QPR winning.
It is worth noting that QPR have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
QPR in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 57% and QPR 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 54% | QPR 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.25 xG and QPR 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.005 / defence 1.105 | QPR attack 1.024 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Data: 8 Cardiff games / 54 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 30% | QPR 39%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | QPR 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 50% | QPR 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 30% | QPR 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Cardiff 1.25 / QPR 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.005 / def 1.105 | QPR attack 1.024 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: QPR (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.42
QPR xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs QPR kick off?
Cardiff vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Wednesday 21 April 2027 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs QPR part of?
Cardiff vs QPR is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 31% chance of winning, QPR a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cardiff and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
Record (9 meetings): Cardiff 2W | Draws 2 | QPR 5W.
What form are Cardiff and QPR in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
31%
3.20
30%
3.36
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.67
1.42
QPR xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cardiff and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.42 for QPR, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 28W 14D 12L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.19 PPG from 27 outings (18W 5D 4L).
On the road, QPR have gone 8W 9D 10L from 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.31 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and QPR in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 28W 14D 12L in their last 54 games (1.81 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or QPR away?
Cardiff's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.19 PPG; QPR away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Cardiff or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, QPR in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and QPR runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting QPR specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
5
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
From 9 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, QPR have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when QPR 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 56%, QPR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cardiff) and 48% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cardiff's games and 56% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Cardiff's recent games and 48% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and QPR tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, QPR in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.