Burnley vs Wrexham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Wrexham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 41 as Burnley welcome Wrexham to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 0W 6D 4L at Turf Moor — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wrexham stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Wrexham's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burnley, 0 for Wrexham and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wrexham trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 65% and Wrexham 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Wrexham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.25 xG and Wrexham 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.814 / defence 1.119 | Wrexham attack 0.932 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Data: 8 Burnley games / 54 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 33% | Draw 31% | Wrexham 36%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Wrexham 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Wrexham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 33% | Draw 31% | Wrexham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Burnley 1.25 / Wrexham 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.814 / def 1.119 | Wrexham attack 0.932 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Wrexham xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wrexham kick off?
Burnley vs Wrexham is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 6 April 2027 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wrexham part of?
Burnley vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 33% chance of winning, Wrexham a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Burnley and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wrexham?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Wrexham 0W.
What form are Burnley and Wrexham in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Wrexham (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burnley's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
33%
3.00
31%
3.26
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.56
1.31
Wrexham xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Burnley and 1.31 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley's recent record stands at 4W 14D 28L from 46 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 12L across 46 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 2W 10D 11L from 23 games — 0.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wrexham's away record stands at 8W 8D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.41 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Wrexham in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 14D 28L in their last 46 games (0.57 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 19W 15D 12L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wrexham away?
Wrexham's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.70 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Wrexham runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wrexham?
From 1 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Wrexham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Wrexham 1-1 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 52%, Wrexham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Burnley) and 44% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 35%; Burnley have failed to score in 39% of games; Wrexham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burnley's recent matches and 48% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Burnley's recent games and 44% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Wrexham tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.