Zlin vs Artis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Artis at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Artis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Letna plays host to Zlin versus Artis in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zlin have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Artis (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Zlin, 0.50 for Artis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Artis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 54% versus Artis 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 46% | Artis 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.10 xG and Artis 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.709 / defence 1.284 | Artis attack 0.819 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.261. Zlin's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Zlin games / 9 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 29% | Draw 31% | Artis 40%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Artis 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Artis at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Artis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 50% | Artis 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 29% | Draw 31% | Artis 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Zlin 1.10 / Artis 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.709 / def 1.284 | Artis attack 0.819 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Artis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Artis xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Artis kick off?
Zlin vs Artis is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Artis part of?
Zlin vs Artis is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 29% chance of winning, Artis a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Artis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zlin and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Artis in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Artis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.71x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.82x) against Zlin's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Artis Win
29%
3.47
31%
3.18
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.42
1.32
Artis xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zlin and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Zlin and 1.32 for Artis, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.36 PPG on a 1W 1D 9L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Artis's form line: 1W 2D 8L from 11 games, 0.45 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.36 PPG for Zlin against 0.45 for Artis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 0.00 PPG from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L).
On the road, Artis have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Artis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.73 scored and 2.27 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Artis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Artis in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 games (0.36 PPG), while Artis have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Artis away?
Artis's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 0.00 PPG; Artis away: 0.80 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 40%, Artis 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Zlin) and 60% (Artis).
On the defensive side: Zlin have failed to score in 60% of games; Artis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Artis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Zlin's recent matches and 60% of Artis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Zlin's recent games and 60% of Artis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Artis tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Artis in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.